Warning Signs: The Shifting Landscape of Cultural Audiences
In October 2023, the National Endowment for the Arts released initial findings from their most recent Survey for Public Participation in the Arts (SPPA).
A comprehensive study designed to collect data on how the American public engages with various forms of cultural activities, the SPPA was initiated by the NEA in collaboration with the U.S. Census Bureau in 1982. It has since been conducted periodically to track changes in arts participation over time.
By observing these macro trends across multiple disciplines we gain a more comprehensive understanding of how audiences have evolved in recent decades.
I sat down and crunched the data in every SPPA from 1982 to 2022. The findings paint a stark picture: While experts predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic would accelerate industry trends by approximately a decade, the reality is even more sobering.
In short, the COVID-19 pandemic isn't the root cause of the arts sector’s current struggles. The pandemic merely hastened the ongoing industry declines that originated almost four decades ago.
If the COVID crisis hasn’t convinced you that it’s time to denounce the status quo, then perhaps these stats will.
Audience behaviors in 1982
In 1982, according to the SPPA, Americans were actively engaging in a wide range of cultural and entertainment experiences. Movies led the way, with 63% of U.S. adults attending screenings. Sports events were also a popular choice, with a robust attendance rate of 48% highlighting the nation's love for athletics.
The arts collectively accounted for a smaller portion of overall attendance. However, these cultural forms had their dedicated enthusiasts. In 1982, 3% of the U.S. population reported attending opera performances and 4.2% reported attending ballet performances, while 11.9% were attending theater productions, and 13% were attending classical music performances.
Musical theater saw a considerable following, with 18.6% of the population attending these vibrant and entertaining productions. Art museums and galleries also held a strong appeal, drawing in 22.1% of the population.
A significant portion of the population, totaling 37%, indulged in exploring the cultural heritage of their surroundings by touring parks, buildings, or neighborhoods for their historic or design value.
Finally, craft fairs and visual arts events enjoyed remarkable popularity, with an impressive 39% of the population participating in these creative and communal gatherings, emphasizing a robust enthusiasm for the arts and crafts within American society at that time.
(Mostly) steady attendance through the 1980s
Between 1982 and 1992, attendance for sports events experienced a significant decline of 11 percentage points, signaling changing preferences or external factors influencing participation. By contrast, movie attendance dropped only slightly. Meanwhile, attendance for arts and culture events increased slightly—except for classical music, musical theater, and parks/monuments.
Below are the percentage changes across disciplines from 1982 to 1992.
Opera: +10%;
Ballet: +11.90%
Jazz: +10.42%.
Theater:+13.45%
Musical theater: -6.35%
Classical music: -3.85%
Art museums/galleries: +20.81%
Craft fairs/visual events: +4.36%
Parks/monuments/historic buildings: -6.75%
Minimal declines in the 1990s
During the 90s, most arts disciplines saw small declines, while movie and sports attendance remained relatively stable. Notably, craft fair attendance and ballet experienced the most significant declines.
Below are the percentage changes across disciplines from 1992 to 2002.
Opera: -3%
Ballet: -17.02%
Jazz: +1.89%.
Theater: -8.89%
Musical theater: -1.72%
Classical music: -7.2%
Art museums/galleries: -.75%
Craft fairs/visual events: -17.95%
Parks/monuments/historic buildings: -8.41%
Change is in the air
It's crucial to acknowledge the profound impact of computers, smartphones, internet, and social media on our world. These technological shifts have not only transformed the way we communicate and access information but have also played a significant role in shaping our cultural preferences and entertainment choices.
The rise in computer ownership during the late 1990s laid the foundation for the digital age and the widespread use of technology in homes and workplaces.
In 1990, just 15% of American households owned computers. By 2000, 51% of all U.S. households had a computer. By 2023, that number had reached 89%.
Then came smartphones, which for some have taken the place of a personal computer. In April 2011, just 35% of U.S. adults owned a smartphone. By June 2015, that number had risen to 68%, and reached 92% by 2023.
Access to the internet has also played an important role in technological and cultural shifts. In 2000, just 43.08% of the U.S. population used the internet. By 2007, that number had risen to 75%. In 2016, 85.54% of the U.S. population was using the internet, a number which had risen to 91.8% by 2023.
But we can’t forget the rise of social media in the United States, which began in the early 2000’s, led by MySpace. By 2005, approximately 5% of U.S. adults were using at least one social media platform, according to the Pew Research Center. That number had exploded to 50% in 2011, and 65% in 2015; by 2023, 72.5% of Americans reported using social media.
Lastly, one of the most notable changes brought about by the rise of technology is the advent of streaming services. Platforms like Netflix, Hulu, and Prime—not to mention Youtube. With the availability of high-quality content at our fingertips, these platforms have become a formidable competitor in the world of entertainment.
Alarming declines in the 2000’s
In addition to the notable rise in internet, computer, and smart phone usage, the period between 2002 and 2012 also witnessed the global financial crisis of 2008, which was likely a factor for audience trends. Most arts disciplines faced significant challenges in maintaining their audiences, witnessing declines between 20-30% during this decade. Notably, though, musical theater, which only declined by 11%, exhibited a trend more similar to that of sports events.
Below are the percentage changes across disciplines from 2002 to 2008.
Opera: -34.38%
Ballet: -25.64%
Jazz: -27.78%.
Theater: -23.58%
Musical theater: -2.3%
Classical music: -19.38%
Art museums/galleries: -14.34%
Craft fairs/visual events: -26.59%
Parks/monuments/historic buildings: -21.2%
Movies: -11.17%
Sports: -12.57%
Below are the percentage changes across disciplines from 2008 to 2012.
Opera: 0%
Ballet: -3.45%
Jazz: -3.85%.
Theater: -11.70%
Classical music: -5.38%
Musical theater: -8.98%
Art museums/galleries: -7.49%
Parks/monuments/historic buildings: -4.02%
Craft fairs/visual events: -8.57%
Sports: -0.65%
Movies: +11.44%
Below are the percentage changes across disciplines from 2002 to 2012.
Opera: -34.38%
Ballet: -28.21%
Jazz: -25.32%.
Theater: -32.52%
Musical theater: -11.11%
Classical music: -24.13%
Art museums/galleries: -20.75%
Craft fairs/visual events: -32.93%
Parks/monuments/historic buildings: -24.36%
Movies: -1%
Sports: -12.57%
Recovering from the financial crisis
As the country recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, most arts disciplines saw modest increases by 2017—except classical music.
Below are the percentage changes across disciplines from 2012 to 2017.
Opera: +3.81
Ballet: +11.07%
Jazz: +6.17%.
Theater: +13.37%
Musical theater: +8.42%
Classical music: -2.05%
Art museums/galleries: +13%
Craft fairs/visual events: +6.21%
Parks/monuments/historic buildings: +18.37%
Movies: -1.35%
Sports: +11.84%
The pandemic effect
Of course, the beginning of the next decade brought the COVID-19 pandemic, with major upheaval for society and staggering decreases in attendance across all categories, reflecting the impact of pandemic lockdowns, safety concerns, and restrictions on gatherings.
In 2022, as the world began to bounce back from the pandemic's impact, ticket buyers returned to arts organizations at much lower rates than in pre-pandemic years—with opera and theater sustaining the biggest losses.
The numbers below show the percentage of change in 2022 compared to 2017, the year of the most recent pre-pandemic SPPA.
Opera: -67.89%
Ballet: -35.69%
Jazz: -26.74%.
Theater: -51.75%
Musical theater: -37.59%
Classical music: -46.64%
Art museums/galleries: -25.41%
Craft fairs/visual events: -28.12%
Parks/monuments/historic buildings: -8.09%
Movies: 26.45%
Sports: -61.97%
Overall, the decreases in arts attendance since the NEA first began collecting data on arts participation paint a fairly bleak picture. Below are the percentage changes across disciplines from 1982 to 2022.
Opera: -76.66%
Ballet: -52.38%
Jazz: -34.375%
Theater: -61.84%
Classical Music: -64.62%
Musical Theater: -44.62%
Art Museums/Galleries: -19.91%
Parks/Monuments: -29.73%
Craft Fairs/Visual Arts: -56.15%
Sports: -73.06%
Movies: -31.59%
As we navigate this new landscape, the arts and culture sector stands at a crucial juncture. Will ticket buyers feel more comfortable returning as we leave the pandemic years behind? Perhaps, but do we have time to wait and see?
I’ve synthesized this data into a 50-page interactive slide deck,
which you can use to:
📊 Get the full picture on how audience behaviors have shifted across disciplines
⚖️ See how your organization compares with declines in your sector
📉 Explore the negative substitution rates that forecast a looming tipping point
💥 Catalyze your stakeholders to align around meaningful change
This isn’t just a slide deck—it’s a wake-up call.
You won’t find this 40-year overview anywhere else. To learn more, click here.
